Best Ideas 2013: Go For Gold Instead Of Stocks In 2013

For the current issue of the Forbes Investment Guide, editors and reporters rounded up bullish and bearish investment ideas for 2013 from dozens of fund managers, strategists and editors of financial newsletters.

Curtis Hesler – Professional Timing Service newsletter

BUY:  Central GoldTrust (GTU): Hesler has been a gold bull since 2000, just before the current 12-year run began.  Now that gold has run from $250 in 2001 to $1,700 today, Hesler says gold still has room to move higher as a currency hedge.

“The most conservative play considering the current state of things in Washington is to hold some gold bullion either in physical form or in a closed-end fund,” says Hesler, who recommends buying into Central GoldTrust (GTU), a Canadian fund that holds bullion in Toronto.  He does not recommend buying the ETFs that track gold, the GLD or the IAU.  "ETFs are risky and the idea in holding gold is to be conservative and eschew risk."

SELL: SPDR S&P 500 (SPY): Hesler is  bearish on the major indices. “I expect a third leg to the recession and a drop to about 50% of current levels in the averages,” he says.  “It is interesting to note that on average the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU) has not performed very well during election years, but has done very well during the first year of the presidential cycle, so 2013 may be quite profitable for the miners. I like the gold miners, but timing and selection become more important since the bull market is not as young as it used to be.”